Drought Conditions Push Colorado Meat Prices Higher

This story is a capstone project by CU Boulder’s News Corps students Lou Leclercq and Susie Cormack.

In the early hours of a spring morning in Boulder, head butcher Ethan Perry gathered his coworkers inside Blackbelly Market & Restaurant to begin the day’s work. On this particular morning, they were butchering a whole lamb. 

Perry carried the 80-pound animal to a wooden table positioned beside a large window, where customers passed by while ordering breakfast burritos and coffee. Tools lined the work surface, including knives, hooks and a large saw, as Perry and his team began carefully breaking the animal down into cuts for sale.

It may seem strange to some, but for meat lovers, it is reassuring to see how food is prepared. But behind the familiar rhythm of the butcher shop lies a growing concern shared by butchers, ranchers and climate scientists across Colorado: the price of meat is rising, and drought is a major reason why.

As the nation marks Earth Day, experts say the changing climate, including historic drought and unusually low snowpack, is beginning to reshape Colorado’s food system. Those environmental shifts are shrinking herd sizes, raising costs for ranchers and slowly pushing prices higher for consumers.

According to the U.S. Quarterly Lamb Report, lamb prices have risen 13.3% since 2024. At Blackbelly, lamb currently sells for $27.99 to $42.99 per pound, depending on the cut. Five years ago, similar cuts often cost $8 to $10 per pound.

And lamb is only part of the story. Across the United States, the national cattle herd has fallen to its lowest level since the 1950s, largely due to years of drought affecting ranchland.

In drought-prone states like Colorado, which experienced record-low snowpack levels this year, butchers and ranchers are increasingly worried about what the coming years may bring.

Where climate meets the butcher counter

At Blackbelly Market, an award-winning butcher shop and restaurant known for whole-animal European-style butchery, staff say drought’s effects are beginning to ripple through the supply chain. Because the shop works closely with small, local ranchers, environmental changes can be felt quickly.

In interviews, Perry and executive butcher Kelly Kawachi said customers are aware the weather has been unusual this year, but many do not realize how closely climate and food prices are connected.

“It’s not clear how much they connect this to being a cause of pricing volatility in beef or other animal proteins we carry,” Perry said. “However, our customers are very conscious of the environment, which is why they shop with us. They know we will offer the best product available and we source with a sustainability mindset that doesn’t have a big impact on the environment.”

Because Blackbelly buys whole animals, its supply has remained relatively stable. But other challenges have emerged.

“There has been more uncertainty around shipments and deliveries and, of course, pricing,” Perry said. “Rising beef prices definitely impact our bottom line. While we’ve had to adjust our pricing, we do try to absorb as much of the increase as possible to keep things affordable for our customers. 

When prices do rise, he said the shop tries to increase them gradually. However, the overall national trend demonstrates how dramatically meat prices have changed.

In January 2021, the average price of beef in the United States dropped to $3.97 per pound, the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic began, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Since then, prices have steadily climbed.

As of March 2026, the average price of beef had risen to $6.70 per pound, according to FRED. Meanwhile, the U.S. cattle herd stood at 86.2 million head as of Jan. 1, 2025, according to the USDA, which is the smallest herd size recorded since 1951.

“People often underestimate the connection between beef production and the land,” Perry said. “Drought or low snowpack can affect herd sizes which impacts supply and pricing. Also, it takes a couple of years to raise an animal, so when drought hits, the impact shows up later and can have lasting effects.”

Ranchers on the front line of drought

For Bob Welch, those impacts are already visible. Welch has raised cattle along Colorado’s Front Range for more than three decades, managing land that relies heavily on mountain snowmelt.

His 2,000-acre lease at Sandstone Ranch, west of Larkspur, depends on East Plum Creek, which provides water for hay crops and livestock. For years, that system worked predictably.

Winter snow accumulated in the mountains. As temperatures warmed, snowmelt flowed into creeks and rivers, providing a steady supply of water through the summer. But that pattern is becoming less reliable.

“I would say this is probably the warmest, driest winter I personally have experienced living in this general area for 45 years,” Welch said. “So yeah, this one seems more extreme than most.”

As February began, Peter Goble, a climatologist at Colorado State University, reported a snowpack that was less than 60% of the normal median. As of April 22, it had shrunk to 17%.

“That’s the worst that we’ve seen in over 40 years,” Goble said.

In Colorado, about 80% of annual surface water supply comes from snowmelt, making snowpack a critical resource. Agriculture is also the state’s largest water user, accounting for approximately 89% of total consumption, according to the Statewide Water Supply Initiative, so the effects of a drought are felt strongly by the industry.

The difficult decisions behind every steak

For ranchers like Welch, drought forces long-term decisions about feed, water and herd size.

“In terms of long-term financials, I did buy an extra load of hay this year, hoping that it’s cheaper this year than it is next year because I think there’ll be a shortage,” Welch said.

He predicts that hay prices will rise by about 25% compared to last year. If drought conditions continue, ranchers sometimes must sell cattle early to reduce feed costs.

“That’s a big problem that feeds into a whole other problem we have in the beef industry, which is our cow herd,” Welch said. “The nationwide cow herd is as small as it’s ever been. That’s why we’re seeing beef prices higher at the supermarket, because the demand has gone up, but the supply has shrunk because of drought.” 

Selling breeding cattle can keep a ranch afloat temporarily but reduce future production.

“If the drought continues, I have to sell,” Welch said. “But what I’ve done is I’ve sold my factory. I can’t produce more beef once it’s gone. In some ways I will have ended my business if I sell my breeding stock, so that’s something I want to avoid. If the drought persists nationwide, more people will be forced into that decision; more cattle and more breeding stock will go into the food supply chain, which just continues to depress the amount of supply we have long term.”

Why climate and food prices are now linked

The impacts extend far beyond ranches and butcher shops. Colorado’s snowpack levels — combined with a warming climate — are forcing ranchers and the meat industry to plan years ahead, while consumers may eventually see the effects at grocery stores.

“Additionally, the incredibly warm March weather is leading to the earliest snowmelt we have ever recorded,” Goble said. “I am very concerned about our water supply over the coming year and what this summer’s wildfire season may bring.” 

Still, ranchers say public awareness also plays a role.

“I would just hope that the consumer can think a little harder about how what we do affects them,” Welch said. “We’re doing our best to provide them with an affordable product, but sometimes it’s just out of our control, and the weather does drive all that in terms of what kind of supply we can provide to meet their demand.” 

For the time being, the full impact has not yet reached the counter, but there are warning signs. The Blackbelly team mentions that, while they can’t see any changes yet, they know next year’s supply will most likely be limited. Perry and Kawachi hope that events like this inspire consumers to think more carefully about where their food comes from. 

“We hope that even if people are eating less beef than usual, they always opt for the highest quality they can find,” Perry said. “Know the rancher, know the source, especially when there are environmental anomalies, you want to be as knowledgeable as possible about what you consume.” 

While changing temperatures have an impact on customers in a variety of ways, ranchers are the first to feel the effects. The Blackbelly team places a high value on maintaining these relationships and ensuring that no one falls behind.

“Our relationships with our ranchers and farmers remain as strong as ever,” Perry said. “We’ve built those partnerships over time on mutual support and trust, and that hasn’t changed. We’re all navigating these challenges together.”